[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Pre-Holiday Stocking Demand Limited, Short-Term Market Remains Stable

On September 25, 2025, the ex-factory price for high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, it was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation was 8,500-8,700 yuan/mt (50% metal content); for South African high-carbon ferrochrome, the quotation was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and for Kazakhstan high-carbon ferrochrome, the quotation was 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

The ferrochrome market operated steadily during the day. A small increase of 200 yuan in October steel mill tenders somewhat supported the confidence of ferrochrome producers to refuse to budge on prices. However, the stainless steel market was in the doldrums recently, with limited release of pre-holiday stockpiling demand. Downstream acceptance of high-priced ferrochrome was limited, and purchase inquiry sentiment was mediocre, mainly waiting to see other steel mills' offers, putting some pressure on traders to sell. Overall, a reduction in imported ferrochrome maintained a tight balance in supply and demand. Domestic ferrochrome producers, driven by robust production due to profitability, faced strong demand for raw material ferrochrome as downstream production schedules increased, spurred by the September-October peak season, pushing ferrochrome prices to rise and fluctuate at highs. Additionally, chrome ore prices rose steadily. Considering that high-priced futures would arrive in port subsequently, the rising production costs supported ferrochrome prices to fluctuate at highs.

In terms of raw materials, on September 25, 2025, the spot price for 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore was quoted at 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was quoted at 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was quoted at 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was quoted at 60-61 yuan/mtu, and 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate ore was quoted at 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat MoM from the previous trading day. In the futures market, 40-42% South African powder was offered at $280-284/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was offered at $345-355/mt, also flat MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, there were no adjustments to chrome ore prices. With the National Day holiday approaching, the market's inquiry and purchasing atmosphere was mediocre, and concentrated transactions were expected after the holiday. Most ferrochrome producers had completed pre-holiday stockpiling last week, with sufficient chrome ore inventory, leading to limited demand for spot goods. There were more cases of counter-offers and negotiations, with general transaction activity. Furthermore, recent arrivals of chrome ore were concentrated, causing high-level fluctuations in port inventory, increasing the holding pressure on traders. Some traders slightly lowered their quotations to avoid the risk of inventory accumulation and to promptly convert funds. The price of 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore had already decreased by 0.5 yuan/mtu, and recent transactions for South African powder were mostly at the lower end of the range, with a wait-and-see sentiment gradually emerging. In the futures market, overseas miners showed a strong willingness to sell, maintaining high shipments of chrome ore, but domestic purchase willingness was mediocre, with lackluster real transactions. However, the high planned production of ferrochrome creates rigid demand for the raw material chrome ore. In the short term, the chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily, with attention focused on changes in downstream purchase inquiries in the future market.